Performance terminal

📊 Weekly NQ Trade Desk Self-Grade

NQ-only delayed-data audit for Aug 3–Aug 7, 2026 ET. Score reflects 15m/30m/60m context outcomes; raw GEX/options-positioning details remain internal.

Journal coverage: 518 reports seen lifetime; 38 unique weekly NQ reports evaluated; 114 graded horizon outcomes; 0 pending windows excluded.

Setups graded

Unique weekly NQ reports; 114 graded horizons

A/B outcome rate

35.1%

40 of 114 graded outcomes

Target-hit rate

2.6%

Directional target level reached before horizon close

Invalidation / stop-hit

61.4%

Opposing level touched across graded horizons

Directional accuracy

33.3%

Move direction aligned with call bias proxy

Avg MFE

116.8 pts

Average favorable excursion where available

Avg MAE

11.4 pts

Average adverse excursion where available

Avg R multiple

Missing

Risk unit / trade sizing not present in journal

Horizon Performance

Directional accuracy, target hits, invalidations, and excursions by forecast horizon. Labels include status text and do not rely on color alone.
Horizon	Graded	Directional Accuracy	Target Hit	Invalidation Hit	Avg MFE	Avg MAE	Assessment
15m	38	34.2%	2.6%	57.9%	94.0 pts	-2.6 pts	Weak edge
30m	38	31.6%	2.6%	63.2%	117.4 pts	9.8 pts	Weak edge
60m	38	34.2%	2.6%	63.2%	138.9 pts	26.9 pts	Weak edge

Experimental Strategy Agents

Separately graded strategy modules. Keep, upgrade, or delete agents based on directional rate, score, and excursion balance after enough samples.
Strategy Agent	Outcomes	Directional	Avg Score	Avg MFE	Avg MAE
ict_smc_sweep_reject	5	100.0%	100.0	97.0 pts	30.8 pts
sdtv_manipulation_leg	114	74.6%	86.2	94.0 pts	-6.5 pts
ten_am_open_levels	92	75.0%	86.2	147.5 pts	-81.4 pts
candle_range_theory	142	60.6%	79.2	97.5 pts	22.9 pts
session_key_levels	84	40.5%	68.5	8.6 pts	121.6 pts
primary_htf_key_levels	201	32.8%	65.9	-5.0 pts	124.5 pts

Setup Types

Best and worst setup buckets from available fields.
Type	Outcomes	Target Hit	Avg Score
Bear/Neutral / balanced	114	2.6%	70.4

No-Trade Condition Quality

No explicit no-trade field exists in the journal. Proxy assessment uses weak directional/target evidence and elevated invalidation risk. Quality: Needs improvement.

Missing: formal no-trade labels, confidence score, stop distance, and R-multiple fields.

Data Completeness

Available: grade, trend proxy, stretched flag, support/resistance hits, MFE/MAE, horizon moves, and forward strategy-agent tags. Missing: execution fills, slippage, and true tick/100t bars. Pending windows this week: 0.

What Worked

Automated journal and grading pipeline produced a usable weekly audit without exposing raw positioning internals.
Best available setup bucket: Bear/Neutral / balanced with 2.6% target-hit rate.
Longer horizon rows highlight whether calls matured beyond first-noise reactions.

What Failed

Formal R-multiple, stop-distance, and execution/slippage fields are still missing from the journal.
Worst available setup bucket: Bear/Neutral / balanced with 2.6% target-hit rate.
Repeated pending rows in the raw grade log require deduplication during dashboard aggregation.

Adjustments for Next Week

Log explicit setup type, confidence, stop distance, target distance, and R multiple for every report.
Penalize or suppress setup buckets whose target-hit rate falls below 40% over the rolling week.
Keep raw GEX/options details internal, but add a simple confluence tag for post-trade scoring.
Weight 15m/30m context evidence highest; treat 60m as context rather than the default hold window.