Performance terminal

📊 Weekly NQ Trade Desk Self-Grade

NQ-only delayed-data audit for Jul 27–Jul 31, 2026 ET. Score reflects 15m/30m/60m context outcomes; raw GEX/options-positioning details remain internal.

Journal coverage: 478 reports seen lifetime; 41 unique weekly NQ reports evaluated; 123 graded horizon outcomes; 0 pending windows excluded.

Setups graded

Unique weekly NQ reports; 123 graded horizons

A/B outcome rate

31.7%

39 of 123 graded outcomes

Target-hit rate

48.0%

Directional target level reached before horizon close

Invalidation / stop-hit

17.9%

Opposing level touched across graded horizons

Directional accuracy

53.7%

Move direction aligned with call bias proxy

Avg MFE

78.3 pts

Average favorable excursion where available

Avg MAE

100.3 pts

Average adverse excursion where available

Avg R multiple

Missing

Risk unit / trade sizing not present in journal

Horizon Performance

Directional accuracy, target hits, invalidations, and excursions by forecast horizon. Labels include status text and do not rely on color alone.
Horizon	Graded	Directional Accuracy	Target Hit	Invalidation Hit	Avg MFE	Avg MAE	Assessment
15m	41	51.2%	46.3%	17.1%	58.9 pts	59.7 pts	Weak edge
30m	41	58.5%	46.3%	17.1%	77.1 pts	97.1 pts	Weak edge
60m	41	51.2%	51.2%	19.5%	98.7 pts	144.1 pts	Weak edge

Experimental Strategy Agents

Separately graded strategy modules. Keep, upgrade, or delete agents based on directional rate, score, and excursion balance after enough samples.
Strategy Agent	Outcomes	Directional	Avg Score	Avg MFE	Avg MAE
candle_range_theory	154	64.3%	81.7	97.5 pts	63.3 pts
primary_htf_key_levels	73	58.9%	78.2	78.2 pts	96.9 pts
sdtv_manipulation_leg	86	58.1%	78.2	104.5 pts	73.1 pts
ten_am_open_levels	90	55.6%	76.8	65.9 pts	36.8 pts
session_key_levels	123	48.8%	73.3	89.4 pts	74.1 pts

Setup Types

Best and worst setup buckets from available fields.
Type	Outcomes	Target Hit	Avg Score
Bear/Neutral / balanced	123	48.0%	72.8

No-Trade Condition Quality

No explicit no-trade field exists in the journal. Proxy assessment uses weak directional/target evidence and elevated invalidation risk. Quality: Acceptable.

Missing: formal no-trade labels, confidence score, stop distance, and R-multiple fields.

Data Completeness

Available: grade, trend proxy, stretched flag, support/resistance hits, MFE/MAE, horizon moves, and forward strategy-agent tags. Missing: execution fills, slippage, and true tick/100t bars. Pending windows this week: 0.

What Worked

Automated journal and grading pipeline produced a usable weekly audit without exposing raw positioning internals.
Best available setup bucket: Bear/Neutral / balanced with 48.0% target-hit rate.
Longer horizon rows highlight whether calls matured beyond first-noise reactions.

What Failed

Formal R-multiple, stop-distance, and execution/slippage fields are still missing from the journal.
Worst available setup bucket: Bear/Neutral / balanced with 48.0% target-hit rate.
Repeated pending rows in the raw grade log require deduplication during dashboard aggregation.

Adjustments for Next Week

Log explicit setup type, confidence, stop distance, target distance, and R multiple for every report.
Penalize or suppress setup buckets whose target-hit rate falls below 40% over the rolling week.
Keep raw GEX/options details internal, but add a simple confluence tag for post-trade scoring.
Weight 15m/30m context evidence highest; treat 60m as context rather than the default hold window.