Performance terminal

📊 Weekly NQ Trade Desk Self-Grade

NQ-only delayed-data audit for Aug 17–Aug 21, 2026 ET. Score reflects 15m/30m/60m context outcomes; raw GEX/options-positioning details remain internal.

Journal coverage: 600 reports seen lifetime; 38 unique weekly NQ reports evaluated; 114 graded horizon outcomes; 0 pending windows excluded.

Setups graded

Unique weekly NQ reports; 114 graded horizons

A/B outcome rate

25.4%

29 of 114 graded outcomes

Target-hit rate

52.6%

Directional target level reached before horizon close

Invalidation / stop-hit

21.1%

Opposing level touched across graded horizons

Directional accuracy

57.9%

Move direction aligned with call bias proxy

Avg MFE

32.7 pts

Average favorable excursion where available

Avg MAE

66.0 pts

Average adverse excursion where available

Avg R multiple

Missing

Risk unit / trade sizing not present in journal

Horizon Performance

Directional accuracy, target hits, invalidations, and excursions by forecast horizon. Labels include status text and do not rely on color alone.
Horizon	Graded	Directional Accuracy	Target Hit	Invalidation Hit	Avg MFE	Avg MAE	Assessment
15m	38	63.2%	44.7%	18.4%	24.3 pts	49.5 pts	Weak edge
30m	38	57.9%	55.3%	21.1%	30.9 pts	68.4 pts	Weak edge
60m	38	52.6%	57.9%	23.7%	43.0 pts	80.2 pts	Weak edge

Key-Level Modules

Separately graded HTF/session-level modules. Old SMC/ICT, SDTV, OTE, and candle-range agents are excluded.
Module	Outcomes	Directional	Avg Score	Avg MFE	Avg MAE
primary_htf_key_levels	201	55.2%	76.6	49.4 pts	42.9 pts
session_key_levels	99	54.5%	76.2	73.6 pts	39.3 pts
ten_am_open_levels	55	41.8%	70.4	39.5 pts	12.8 pts

Setup Types

Best and worst setup buckets from available fields.
Type	Outcomes	Target Hit	Avg Score
Bear/Neutral / balanced	114	52.6%	68.2

No-Trade Condition Quality

No explicit no-trade field exists in the journal. Proxy assessment uses weak directional/target evidence and elevated invalidation risk. Quality: Acceptable.

Missing: formal no-trade labels, confidence score, stop distance, and R-multiple fields.

Data Completeness

Available: grade, trend proxy, stretched flag, support/resistance hits, MFE/MAE, horizon moves, and forward key-level setup tags. Missing: execution fills, slippage, and true tick/100t bars. Pending windows this week: 0.

What Worked

Automated journal and grading pipeline produced a usable weekly audit without exposing raw positioning internals.
Best available setup bucket: Bear/Neutral / balanced with 52.6% target-hit rate.
Longer horizon rows highlight whether calls matured beyond first-noise reactions.

What Failed

Formal R-multiple, stop-distance, and execution/slippage fields are still missing from the journal.
Worst available setup bucket: Bear/Neutral / balanced with 52.6% target-hit rate.
Repeated pending rows in the raw grade log require deduplication during dashboard aggregation.

Adjustments for Next Week

Log explicit setup type, confidence, stop distance, target distance, and R multiple for every report.
Penalize or suppress setup buckets whose target-hit rate falls below 40% over the rolling week.
Keep raw GEX/options details internal, but add a simple confluence tag for post-trade scoring.
Weight 15m/30m context evidence highest; treat 60m as context rather than the default hold window.